France decides today: 11 candidates, for a real crisscross of choices. I hope the optimism for change I felt this bright morning continues tonight, after 8pm when the result is expected. A high turn-out seems certain, which means it will go to the wire, and may spring a surprise or two.
To be right or not to be right, that is the question. Or at least it is the one that concerns anyone who has ever sat on a quiz team. But what if you are asking the questions?
It's a clammy Indian summer again, but the signs of autumn are here. The leaves are turning, the garden yells at me and darkness sets in earlier in the evening and clings on later in the morning as I write. In an hour the kids have to be brought to school. What a great moment in a busy day that is. Shoes on, bags slung, breakfast belched, hair combed, teeth brushed, eyes owl-like, then down the stairs in a clatter, through the courtyard, across the road into a flow of parents, round to the old school house nestling unnoticed in central Paris, and kisses before the boys and girls disappear through the old "Ecole des Filles" entrance. That is an old wooden sign, of course, harking back to a day when girls were girls, and the French teachers were masters like no other at turning cohorts of mômes into talent. They are not so sure of themselves now though. Could this be the autumn of l'Education nationale?
Am surprised no mention of Ireland in your article, and the Scots could surely cite that example a bit more forcefully rather than Denmark or Iceland. I wonder why they don't and why you don't. Whatever: Whether independent or not, Scotland and England will continue to get on well; Scotland could flourish under either scenario.
"Britons voted on Thursday to leave the European Union. The Leave side led with 17.4 million votes, or 52 percent, versus the Remain side’s 16.1 million, or 48 percent, with a turnout of around 72 percent." From the NY Times, 24 June 2010; see map
Island for sale
During the 80s crisis an American friend Mark Boswell and I mused in a Paris kitchen about splitting Ireland in two, and then selling off either the romantic, gaelic, West or the then wealthier urban East. Which side would raise more cash? Which sale would cause more soulsearching and challenge Irish (or any other) cultural identity more?
An article in the Irish Independent raises a similar specter: "Yesterday, the IMF and the EU were busy trying to limit the damage following their mission to Greece. One auditor, also the EC representative, Servaas Deroose, encouraged the Greeks to "sell beaches" to pay back the IMF/EU loan."
Stuff of theatre? How real it could all become.
Lots of people have just recently been talking as though the recovery in the US had been going on for two years. Not that anyone was celebrating, what with unemployment so high. Even so, I have no idea where that notion of recovery came from or what data it was based on, yet international organisations and other institutions seemed to have made up their minds. And many journalists and economic commentators seemed happy with that and took their cue from a few official press releases. In reality, the economy in the western world has been in fairly bad shape at least since Lehman's fall in 2008, and probably earlier than that.
David, I remember your public speaking not that long back, just before the crisis finally broke: you were sure there’d be a reckoning for all the private Irish debt v German savings, you sensed there was trouble ahead, but you were unsure about when. Others had similar fears, you voiced yours clearly, but it was not a forecast as such, and you occasionally expressed doubt, given what seemed like gravity-defying property prices. Your fears were based on something more sophisticated than “what goes up must come down”, though not sure if you saw the tsunami building in the US. Maybe you did.